Reference: Jimison, H. B. Generating Explanations of Decision Models Based on an Augmented Representation of Uncertainty. 1990.
Abstract: Many real-world models can be characterized as weak, meaning that there is significant uncertainty in both the data input and the inferences. This lack of determinism makes it especially difficult for users of computer decision aids to understand and have confidence in the models. This paper presents a representation for uncertainty and utilities that serves as a framework for graphical summary and computer-generated explanation of decision models. The application described that tests the methodology is a computer decision aid designed to enhance the clinician-patient consultation process for patients who have angina (chest pain due to lack of blood flow to the heart muscle). The angina model is represented as a Bayesian decision network. In addition, the probabilities and utilities are treated as random variables with probability distributions on their range of possible values. The initial distributions represent information on all patients who have anginal symptoms, and the approach allows for rapid tailoring to more patient-specific distributions. This framework provides a metric for judging the importance of each variable in the model dynamically.